I've had a fortnight of not really wanting to blog for some reason. I promised mageshmagi this blog entry on Mercedes and Schumacher's underperformances before I went on unintended hiatus.

First of all, it was always going to be difficult for Mercedes to match its precedescor's antics. Brawn managed to win the one driver's and constructor's title it entered with considerable aplomb. Nonetheless, it had to do so with an unusual resource distribution. When the car was designed in mid-2008, money was practically falling from the sky, but by the time it hit the track the primary funding source (Honda) had reduced dramatically. It funded the season's running costs (albeit only for a much smaller operation than the one it had been when the team was called Honda), but did not fund  the creation of the 2010 challenger. Therefore the 2010 car was hamstrung by a serious lack of funds.

Then Ross Brawn made an intelligent move. By hiring Nico Rosberg, he gained a driver who is intelligent and ready to take a step up from his previous team - the plucky but gracefully-declining Williams. He'd been team leader there for two seasons and proved to be a good team leader for Mercedes.

That wasn't the plan. The plan had been for Rosberg to ably back up a seven-time world champion who would break all records and be a legendary touchstone for all at Mercedes - Michael Schumacher. He was duly hired, to the astonishment of most of the F1 community. He said the right things (though I was somewhat worried that how he said them didn't match how he'd said them before) and testing wasn't terrible for him.

Just as well it wasn't terrible for him because it was quite clear that the Mercedes W01 had suffered for its lack of development funding.  It wasn't a dominating influence or even on the pace of the likes of Red Bull. This was going to be a tough season. The engine was beautifully fast but the chassis didn't respond well to its tyres. Michael and Nico (along with Felipe Massa at Ferrari) frequently noted that the front tyres did not support their driving styles, which tend to involve quite hard braking.

Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello, who'd been at Brawn in 2009, both have much gentler braking styles and would have suited the Mercedes W01 better. However, neither of them were options for Mercedes. Jenson wanted a fresh challenge and Rubens had been harbouring a desire to race for Williams for quite a while. Still, without a hard-braking driver to ask for tips during development, it is easy to see why this significant flaw appeared in Mercedes' first car.

What is more difficult to understand is why the 2011 car met a similar fate. After all, Felipe's 2011 Ferrari is much more to his liking. There was a major reshuffle in the factory staff towards the end of 2010, which delayed completion of the W02. There was also a decision made to start with a basic car and upgrade it a lot as soon as possible, even though that didn't really work for them in 2010 either. An upgrade can fix many things but not a fundamental weakness in the car.

Due to that philosophy, we may see considerable improvement across the season. Upgrades can fix minor problems. Even though the problems with the Mercedes' tendency to consume tyres rapidly do not constitute "minor", things can be done to reduce that flaw and fix less noticeable difficulties such as a lack of downforce compared to Ferrari and Red Bull. The engine's still strong (unsurprising due to engine sorbet regulations) but it's not enough.

Michael Schumacher does not seem to have adapted to being in an imperfect car very well. He tends to make more mistakes in that situation than we were accustomed to seeing in his previous time in F1. Hence he tends to hit cars instead of passing them, impairing his performances in an already non-optimised car. He's also started to show tendencies towards crumbling in whichever qualifying session is his last one in a given day. This is the very effect he used to trigger in other people back in 2006. It's the sign of a driver that, for all his determination, diligence and innate skill, has gone from the hunted to the hunter - and vastly preferred being the hunted.

If Michael ever wants to see a podium again, let alone a win, he needs to re-assume the mentality of the hunted - the one who leads and is forever trying to escape, willing to experiment to improve but ever holding their nerve while doing so. Perhaps Mercedes may benefit from a little of that too, but mostly it just needs to put more emphasis on getting the car right the first time.

Date: November 16 2009

Currently: Reading F1 Racing (August 2009 edition)

Mood: Proud

Word has come out that Mercedes has bought a 75.1% controlling stake in Brawn. The wording implies that Ross Brawn and his co-purchasers still hold part of their team, but it means that the Brawn name will be seen no more on the grid.

Mercedes will be the name of the Brackley-based team now; a name with a fearsome reputation in F1 as a constructor. It's only done two seasons and they were in 1954 and 1955. It won both championships and then left in response to the Le Mans disaster that also resulted in Switzerland's long-standing ban on motor racing. It is a serious organisation with serious intent; its engines have powered two champions (2008 and 2009) and been significantly involved in two other championship fights (2005 and 2007) in the past five years.

Brawn will not lack funding for a long time because a works engine arrangement, added to the funds Brawn already said it had guaranteed for the future from elsewhere, equals a lot of money at a time when funding requirements are supposed to be going down. Brawn is in a very good place and if Button declines a Brawn seat in 2010 then I think he would be... ...foolish.

McLaren worries me more. I imagine that Mercedes will still supply McLaren if it can, but I can't shake the feeling that total divorce is on the cards for 2015. It must be hoping that the recession will cease to affect the business world by then because otherwise the choice of replacement units is limited.

Hamilton's team-mate may be affected by these changes, but the striking thing to me is that Kimi Raikkonen doesn't seem to be featuring in the rumoured driver line-ups, despite several versions floating around. It may be that Kimi's managment are quietly revising their offer to McLaren, but if not, this is likely to spell the end of Kimi's F1 career in the most pathetic way possible. Two years ago, Kimi Raikkonen was world champion. Now he can't seem to get into any team that he wants because of the champions that succeeded him, plus some psuedopolitics and paddock doubts.

It just goes to show how quickly things move in F1 and how insecure any driver's position ultimately is. If this can happen to Kimi, it can happen (with variations) to any driver...

Today, however, let's look on the bright side: this makes Brawn the only F1 team ever with a 100% record of winning world championships in F1 apart from Mercedes.  By 2011 it could hold that honour alone. That is an incredible statistic and deserves great respect.

It also means that Ross has decisively succeeded in his mission to save the ex-Honda, ex-BAR, ex-Tyrrell team. While it looked likely for a long time due to Brawn's great success on-track and assurances it had its budget for three years secured, the success is sealed and can never be taken from him. Well done to Ross and all his colleagues - Mercedes may take the headlines, but this is really your day.