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Atom This entry leads on from the first part and you may wish to have it open while you read this.
Had luck not been a factor, the first half of the season up to and including Britain would have had a table like this:
- Vettel, instead of only taking the title lead as he took the championship in Abu Dhabi, would have started by winning Bahrain and therefore leading the championship from the off. The eventual championship contenders (ignoring interlopers) would have been:
1) Vettel
2) Alonso
3) Hamilton
4) Button
5) Webber
- In Australia, Hamilton would have gone from 3rd to 2nd, leapfrogging Alonso. In fact, Button and Alonso would have been tied on 24 points, with Webber far behind holding only 10.
1) Vettel
2) Hamilton
3) Alonso and Button
5) Webber
- Vettel would have had 3 wins from 3 starts by the end of Australia. Webber and Hamilton would be tied for 2nd due to Mark's much improved home race. Due to dropping out of the race, Alonso would be behind even Button.
1) Vettel
2) Webber and Hamilton
4) Button
5) Alonso
- Hamilton would have emerged as Vettel's biggest threat by the end of China. Now Webber and Alonso would be tied and Button starts a drop-back from which he never really recovers.
1) Vettel
2) Hamilton
3) Webber and Alonso
5) Button
- Webber finally managed to get clear of Alonso in Spain by winning. The positions stayed the same for Monaco, but Webber has the momentum...
1) Vettel
2) Hamilton
3) Webber
4) Alonso
5) Button
- ...and with Turkey he passes Vettel for the lead. In fact, since Vettel caused his own crash, Hamilton gains enough points to pass him too. The top 3 are finely poised by this stage, with 5 points between them. Button and Alonso are cast ever further adrift. At Canada, the new, precarious balance is maintained, though Button edges closer to Alonso and Hamilton closes in on Webber...
1) Webber
2) Hamilton
3) Vettel
4) Alonso
5) Button
- Valencia may have been one of the least luck-influenced races of the season, but Hamilton ends up taking the lead from Webber. Vettel closes to within 2 points of Hamilton, thus re-taking a position from Webber. The same pattern applies to Britain.
1) Hamilton
2) Vettel
3) Webber
4) Button
5) Alonso
What you will see from this is that the gut feeling in the paddock that the Red Bulls were the fastest things out there had merit. For much of the early season, Vettel and Webber led, and they were always occupying two of the top three positions.
It is also difficult to see how the title could involve five protagonists in the end, with Button and Alonso slowly being left behind. One wonders if McLaren would have had its momentum subtly shifted towards Hamilton in this situation (Ferrari is unlikely to have been affected the same way as Alonso would probably still have had more points than Massa, subject to Felipe's own luck being analysed in the same fashion as Fernando's has been).
Races with net good and bad luck:
Vettel: 2 good, 3 bad, 5 neutral
Webber: 1 good, 2 bad, 7 neutral
Alonso: 3 good, 1 bad, 6 neutral
Hamilton: 1 good, 4 bad, 5 neutral
Button: 7 good, 2 bad, 1 neutral
Everyone's campaign was somewhat dependent on both good and bad luck in the first half of the year. Vettel and Webber were slightly unlucky, though both had some good luck as well. However, the bad luck tended to cost more points than they gained when they were lucky.
Alonso had quite a few more lucky races than unlucky ones, but that was a drop in the water compared to Button, whose early campaign practically relied on being lucky...