Date: 29 April 2007


[ Mood: Huh? ]
[ Currently: Reading Survival Strategies for People on the Autistic Spectrum ]
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Warning! Long entry alert!

Renault's predicament has been surprising in its magnitude, if not necessarily in its occurence. It is currently fighting over minor points in races and sometimes scrabbling to get twelth in qualifying. And as Martin Brundle said in 2002, "Flavio [Briatore] doesn't really do twelfth, does he?"

It would be fair to say that this entry got inspired by Formula 1 Latest's blog entry on Renault. However, my response is too long to put in their comments box, so I thought it was fairer to put it here where people who like long monologues can enjoy it better.

Before the season started, the people who thought Renault were going to be in trouble mostly appeared to believe that the main reason was the drivers. Fernando Alonso has done a sterling job for Renault in the last two years, and continues to do a good job for McLaren. He was never going to be an easy act to follow, particularly bearing in mind that many doubted Giancarlo Fisichella was up to the task, and that Heikki Kovalainen was a rookie (even great drivers need some time to become world-beaters.

In fact, Flavio Briatore has really got himself into a pickle over his drivers this year. The plan was so obvious and so likely to work - keep on Fisichella to show Kovalainen the ropes and maintain continuity (he has a proven track record of both, and with all the personnel reshuffles and the tyre swap, a dip in form was likely even if Alonso was still there). Groom Kovalainen to be the team leader for 2008 (bearing in mind that Flavio thinks/thought he is/was the next Alonso) and put Nelson Piquet Jr. in as Heikki's second in 2008 (as the Alonso-after-next). This would produce a lovely conveyor belt of superstars to pay Flavio money and bring Renault long-term glory.

Two things have put spanners in the works. Fisi has done better than Flavio expected relative to Heikki. I'm sure Flavio thought they'd nearly equal each other by Bahrain, but Heikki's currently too busy working on his driving-mediocre-cars technique to worry about his catching-the-team-leader technique. Also, Heikki hasn't been able to display the level of team leadership required for him to take the No. 1 role for 2008.

This combination is especially awkward as Flavio still doesn't appear to have quite forgiven Fisi for the last two years and Nelson probably has a Heikki-like (and fairly common) clause that he be given the car should either of the current racers not be available.

As a result, the whole discussion of who may replace Fisi as team leader may be rather premature. Until Kovalainen demonstrates some team leadership skills or a point is reached when both Fisi and Heikki can be dismissed at the same time, Flavio cannot remove Fisi without giving himself the rather weak Heikki-Nelson line-up. If I were Flavio, I would be pleased that I could have a Fisi-Heikki pairing and get back to overseeing car improvements. Flavio probably wouldn't be so happy...

If Nelson's manager has been silly enough not to negotiate himself the reserve driver clause, then Webber is the most likely target. Button is probably so restrained by contractual bounds that even his and Flavio's combined will to change teams would not prevail against the CRB (though it might net Flavio some cash to try, as well as add pressure to Webber's salary negotiation). Bear in mind that he signed a 5-year Honda extension only at the end of 2004, so Button is stuck there until the end of 2009.

The Ferrari and McLaren drivers can be safely ignored - all four are (as far as I can tell) contracted beyond 2007, and only Alonso is anything other than delighted at the prospect. Even he is probably only temporarily irritated by the Hamilton hype and won't flounce off-stage like his predecessor Juan Pablo Montoya did.

Mark, on the other hand, is probably on a normal contract and could be bought out if necessary. He will also be keen not to repeat his mistake of disregarding Flavio's instructions twice in succession. Adrian Newey would be a factor against the move, but is Mark's loyalty to his chief designer stronger than his loyalty to his manager? So if it's not Fisi-Heikki next year, I think it will be Mark-Nelson. The former is more likely, however - though it will be gritted teeth on Flavio's part, it would be the more successful arrangement.

As for the cause of Renault's problems, I think what's wrong at Renault is the tyre compatibility. Renault have had the rearmost weight distribution since 2001, and switching to Bridgestone tyres caused a problem. This was because Bridgestones require a more forward weight distribution whilst maintaining broadly the same aerodynamics as 2006 (note Super Aguri's supremacy over Honda). The weight distribution had a lot of effects. Also remember Renault's budget is relatively small, which makes tackling two different research tracks at once difficult.

As a consequence, there ended up being compromises on both the distribution and the aero, which have proved a very bad combination. No amount of good driving can completely compensate for a mediocre car. In essence, Fisi's performance relative to Heikki is because Fisi is better at dealing with mediocre cars (he's been in this situation before - 2001-2003, anyone?), but that's not going to win Renault championships; car improvements are. And the car improvements necessary are too numerous for Renault to deal with. Which is why Renault are hovering around lower points-paying positions right now.