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This entry was inspired by a question asked by Lonny at F1 Insight. He wondered if Felipe Massa would have been champion if his engine failures and pit lane problem in Singapore had been taken into account, irrespective of the stewarding against Hamilton. As promised, I decided to do the maths.
I started doing a reply and then realised that it was much too long to work as a comment.
The analysis is formatted with the cumulative points after each race title. The original one is given first, then the modified one. A corrected analysis of Singapore changed the results towards the end; while the original is left in for historical purposes, the latter number should be taken as the more accurate final points count. Hamilton's score is always given before Massa's.
The first number by each driver underneath the race titles is the number of points actually scored in that race. After that, there is a modifier to take into account the effects of mechanical failures, pit-stop gremlins, bad stewarding and the effects of all these on drivers who would otherwise have finished in a position affecting their points scores. An explanation of all modifiers is given in brackets.
I calculate the following fortune-correction for Massa and Hamilton:
Australia (10-0 becomes 10-2)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Massa 0 + 2 (engine failure while in 7th)
Malaysia (14-0 becomes 16-2)
Hamilton 4 + 2 (lost 15 seconds in botched McLaren pit stop)
Massa 0 + 0 (spun off on his own accord)
Bahrain (14-10 becomes 16-12)
Hamilton 0 + 0 (he clouted Alonso himself)
Massa 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Spain (20-18 becomes 22-20)
Hamilton 6 + 0 (uneventful third)
Massa 8 + 0 (uneventful second)
Turkey (28-28 becomes 30-30)
Hamilton 8 + 0 (uneventful second)
Massa 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Monaco (38-34 becomes 40-36)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (non-controversial victory, apart from the crash that he was lucky to drive away from)
Massa 6 + 0 (equally non-controversial second or third, as Nick subsequently corrected me)
Canada (38-38 becomes 40-41)
Hamilton 0 + 0 (he crashed of his own accord)
Massa 4 + 1 (lost a pitstop worth of time due to not being fuelable in first stop, a drama missed due to Hamilton's collision, but Raikkonen would have been ahead of him were it not for being hit by Hamilton. Net gain of one point.)
France (38-48 becomes 40-49)
Hamilton 0 + 0 (the chicane-cut rule may be woolly, but none of the known official interpretations permit the first-lap chicane-cut Hamilton did)
Massa 10 - 2 (would have been second but for Raikkonen's exhaust problem)
Britain (48-48 becomes 50-49)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (he won without controversy)
Massa 0 + 0 (he did all his own spins)
Germany (58-54 becomes 60-55)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (he won despite a tactical error)
Massa 6 + 0 (uneventful third)
Hungary (62-54 becomes 63-65)
Hamilton 4 - 1 (would have lost a position if Massa's engine had held. The potential win was lost by his own error)
Massa 0 + 10 (lost victory due to an engine failure)
Europe (70-64 becomes 71-73)
Hamilton 8 + 2 (would have gained Massa's place had a correct penalty been awarded)
Massa 10 - 2 (would have lost a pitstop had he been penalised correctly for unsafe release)
Belgium (76-74 becomes 83-81)
Hamilton 6 + 4 (controversial chicane-cut; on strict interpretation no modification should occur, but on the wording of the interpretations used both before and after the incident, Hamilton had given the place back and waited until Raikkonen erred before going through)
Massa 10 - 2 (would have lost the win if Hamilton had been adjudged by convention accurately instead of a misinterpretation of a post-dated interpretation)
Italy (78-77 becomes 83-84)
Hamilton 2 - 2 (should have been penalised for a chicane-cut against Heidfeld)
Massa 3 + 0 (uneventful sixth)
Singapore (84-77 becomes 91-85 or 91-87)
Hamilton 6 + 2 (Rosberg only finished ahead due to a slow penalty issue)
Massa 0 + 1 [3]
Original analysis comment:(he should have come out about ten seconds ahead of Raikkonen, but Raikkonen himself was sixteenth after all that. Giving Massa ten seconds more only promoted him to tenth, which would have become eighth after Trulli's retirement and Fisichella's performance fading)
Updated analysis comment(he should have come out one stoppage period ahead of Sutil. This would have promoted him to eighth, which makes him sixth after Trulli and Fisichella are taken into account)
Japan (84-79 becomes 93-85 or 93-87)
Hamilton 0 + 2 (the Massa/Bourdais thing wouldn't have been enough in itself to promote him any places as he was too far behind. The collection of penalisable incidents would have raised him one position, but he needed three more to gain a place. However, he should not have been hit by Massa in the first place and did nothing to earn the penalty issued to him from that incident. 43 seconds lost there. This gives him a net position of 7th, just behind Bourdais)
Massa 2 - 2 (should have received the penalty Bourdais got for the crash between them. Also should have been penalised for causing an avoidable collision in addition to one for a chicane-skip and another one for using a sterile area to pass Webber)
China (94-87 becomes 103-93 or 103-95)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Massa 8 + 0 (technically receiving the position back from Raikkonen is against the Regulations, but convention says that in this situation it's OK. If I am to say Hamilton should not have been penalised for Spa, then I should also say that Massa was correctly unpenalised for this irrespective of my feelings about team orders)
Brazil (98-97 becomes 107-103 or 107-105)
Hamilton 4 + 0 (uneventful fifth from the perspective of this analysis)
Massa 10 + 0 (easy win)
The conclusion is that the gap was three [one if the updated score is used] points smaller than it would have been with all reliability issues, stewarding mishaps and so on taken into account. It remains in Hamilton's favour.
This entry was inspired by a question asked by Lonny at F1 Insight. He wondered if Felipe Massa would have been champion if his engine failures and pit lane problem in Singapore had been taken into account, irrespective of the stewarding against Hamilton. As promised, I decided to do the maths.
I started doing a reply and then realised that it was much too long to work as a comment.
The analysis is formatted with the cumulative points after each race title. The original one is given first, then the modified one. A corrected analysis of Singapore changed the results towards the end; while the original is left in for historical purposes, the latter number should be taken as the more accurate final points count. Hamilton's score is always given before Massa's.
The first number by each driver underneath the race titles is the number of points actually scored in that race. After that, there is a modifier to take into account the effects of mechanical failures, pit-stop gremlins, bad stewarding and the effects of all these on drivers who would otherwise have finished in a position affecting their points scores. An explanation of all modifiers is given in brackets.
I calculate the following fortune-correction for Massa and Hamilton:
Australia (10-0 becomes 10-2)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Massa 0 + 2 (engine failure while in 7th)
Malaysia (14-0 becomes 16-2)
Hamilton 4 + 2 (lost 15 seconds in botched McLaren pit stop)
Massa 0 + 0 (spun off on his own accord)
Bahrain (14-10 becomes 16-12)
Hamilton 0 + 0 (he clouted Alonso himself)
Massa 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Spain (20-18 becomes 22-20)
Hamilton 6 + 0 (uneventful third)
Massa 8 + 0 (uneventful second)
Turkey (28-28 becomes 30-30)
Hamilton 8 + 0 (uneventful second)
Massa 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Monaco (38-34 becomes 40-36)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (non-controversial victory, apart from the crash that he was lucky to drive away from)
Massa 6 + 0 (equally non-controversial second or third, as Nick subsequently corrected me)
Canada (38-38 becomes 40-41)
Hamilton 0 + 0 (he crashed of his own accord)
Massa 4 + 1 (lost a pitstop worth of time due to not being fuelable in first stop, a drama missed due to Hamilton's collision, but Raikkonen would have been ahead of him were it not for being hit by Hamilton. Net gain of one point.)
France (38-48 becomes 40-49)
Hamilton 0 + 0 (the chicane-cut rule may be woolly, but none of the known official interpretations permit the first-lap chicane-cut Hamilton did)
Massa 10 - 2 (would have been second but for Raikkonen's exhaust problem)
Britain (48-48 becomes 50-49)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (he won without controversy)
Massa 0 + 0 (he did all his own spins)
Germany (58-54 becomes 60-55)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (he won despite a tactical error)
Massa 6 + 0 (uneventful third)
Hungary (62-54 becomes 63-65)
Hamilton 4 - 1 (would have lost a position if Massa's engine had held. The potential win was lost by his own error)
Massa 0 + 10 (lost victory due to an engine failure)
Europe (70-64 becomes 71-73)
Hamilton 8 + 2 (would have gained Massa's place had a correct penalty been awarded)
Massa 10 - 2 (would have lost a pitstop had he been penalised correctly for unsafe release)
Belgium (76-74 becomes 83-81)
Hamilton 6 + 4 (controversial chicane-cut; on strict interpretation no modification should occur, but on the wording of the interpretations used both before and after the incident, Hamilton had given the place back and waited until Raikkonen erred before going through)
Massa 10 - 2 (would have lost the win if Hamilton had been adjudged by convention accurately instead of a misinterpretation of a post-dated interpretation)
Italy (78-77 becomes 83-84)
Hamilton 2 - 2 (should have been penalised for a chicane-cut against Heidfeld)
Massa 3 + 0 (uneventful sixth)
Singapore (84-77 becomes 91-85 or 91-87)
Hamilton 6 + 2 (Rosberg only finished ahead due to a slow penalty issue)
Massa 0 + 1 [3]
Original analysis comment:(he should have come out about ten seconds ahead of Raikkonen, but Raikkonen himself was sixteenth after all that. Giving Massa ten seconds more only promoted him to tenth, which would have become eighth after Trulli's retirement and Fisichella's performance fading)
Updated analysis comment(he should have come out one stoppage period ahead of Sutil. This would have promoted him to eighth, which makes him sixth after Trulli and Fisichella are taken into account)
Japan (84-79 becomes 93-85 or 93-87)
Hamilton 0 + 2 (the Massa/Bourdais thing wouldn't have been enough in itself to promote him any places as he was too far behind. The collection of penalisable incidents would have raised him one position, but he needed three more to gain a place. However, he should not have been hit by Massa in the first place and did nothing to earn the penalty issued to him from that incident. 43 seconds lost there. This gives him a net position of 7th, just behind Bourdais)
Massa 2 - 2 (should have received the penalty Bourdais got for the crash between them. Also should have been penalised for causing an avoidable collision in addition to one for a chicane-skip and another one for using a sterile area to pass Webber)
China (94-87 becomes 103-93 or 103-95)
Hamilton 10 + 0 (easy victory)
Massa 8 + 0 (technically receiving the position back from Raikkonen is against the Regulations, but convention says that in this situation it's OK. If I am to say Hamilton should not have been penalised for Spa, then I should also say that Massa was correctly unpenalised for this irrespective of my feelings about team orders)
Brazil (98-97 becomes 107-103 or 107-105)
Hamilton 4 + 0 (uneventful fifth from the perspective of this analysis)
Massa 10 + 0 (easy win)
The conclusion is that the gap was three [one if the updated score is used] points smaller than it would have been with all reliability issues, stewarding mishaps and so on taken into account. It remains in Hamilton's favour.
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