...and what to do about it

Yesterday, we saw Force India choose to not run in Q3 at Singapore. This is the second time this season they have taken this option. In DRStrategy, this was recommended as the solution for a team which cannot seriously compete for pole in Q3. There was no possibility of Force India managing a much higher position if it ran than if it didn't, so it was sensible to save a set of tyres to preserve strategy and perhaps pass the more profligate Mercedes team through strategy.

This may seem a rather mercenary attitude, but remember Force India is in a battle between Renault and Sauber over 5th place in the championship. Sauber is very close behind Force India, so it needs points. In addition, Renault is having a lousy weekend in Singapore, making this the best opportunity Force India is likely to have to close the gap between the two. Logically, Force India has to prioritise racing well to qualifying well.

So all is well? Not to judge from the large number of disappointed fans. The best I've seen of their reaction came from @LewisBarthaud:

something needs to be done, this 3 phase format came about to improve the show, you can't call it the "top 10 shootout" with only 7

 

You can't argue with that logic. Also, there's an emotional argument which presumably wouldn't condense into the remaining characters.

There is a massive visceral pleasure in seeing a racing car on track. When there are many racing cars doing likewise and competing powerfully with one another, the pleasure is multiplied. So to take it in reverse, removing 30% of the expected competitors will take out an average of well over 30% of the excitement (exact percentage depending on exactly who "forfeited" the session and who's watching).

This is an example of perverse incentives - the regulations, designed to provide excitement and happiness to the multitudes who watch F1 racing, create the exact opposite effect in qualifying if played out to their logical conclusion.

The first thought might be to penalise those who do not run in Q3 on purpose through a grid penalty. However, this ends up creating perverse incentives of its own. One of the main ways people have been able to overcome the zero-sum passing engendered by DRS is by having more sets of unused soft tyres. What this means is that everyone will, barring unforeseen punctures or crashes, everyone will have the same number of sets of soft tyres remaining. By insisting everyone must have the same number of unused sets of soft tyres, the racing will become even more predictable and samey - under the rippled surface of inconsequential passes. Only someone setting their fastest time with hard tyres will be able to break the cycle.

So that method of making a more exciting qualifying would make a rather dull race. However, this is not an insoluable equation. Changing the way tyre allocations work may help.

My proposal works thus:

- 3 "hard" sets given out on Friday. This will encourage race set-up and endurance work, shift tyre comparison work to Saturday, possibly encourage more teams to use unproven drivers. More importantly for the specific problem under discussion, it means a "soft" set can be awarded later in the weekend without making Pirelli bring any extra tyres. You've got to adapt to cost-cutting...

- 1 "soft" and 1 "hard" tyre set given out at the start of Saturday

-  1 "soft" and 1 "hard" tyre given out at the start of Q1. Any of the three sets of softs given out thus far may be used in qualifying.

- 1 "soft" given out at the start of Q2 - but only to drivers who set a time on the soft given out in Q1.

- 1 "soft" given out at the start of Q3 - but only to drivers who set a time on the soft given out in Q2.

- 2 "soft" and 1 "hard" set given out on Sunday - but only to drivers who set a time on the soft given out in Q3 (or Q1/2 if they were eliminated there). Q3 runners will be permitted to use this instead of the tyre they did their time on, should they be eligible to receive such tyres. Teams will hand back 3 "hard" and 2 "soft" sets of their choice, leaving them with the same number of tyres for the race as they have now.

Stewards' discretion will be used for anyone who makes a genuine attempt to qualify but has a technical issue on-track, crashes on their "sighter" Q1 run on hard tyres or during their soft-tyre run. The idea being that genuine accidents would be treated the same as people who were knocked out at the same stage but completed the soft-tyre run. Anyone of whom foul play is suspected (or had such serious problems that they  wouldn't have used up much/any of the soft tyre's longevity) will receive no such privileges and be treated the same as those who never attempted the run.

This would mean qualifying would influence how many tyres on has available in a more sensible way.

• Someone who didn't run in Q1 on soft tyres would have no unused "soft" tyres.
• Someone who chose not to run in Q2 or Q3 on soft tyres would have 1 set of unused "soft" tyres (the one they got for running in Q1 on softs).
• Someone who chose to run soft tyres in all sessions for which they were eligible would get 2 sets of unused "soft" tyres (for running in Q3).

 This should re-align incentives for the race in favour of having both an exciting qualifying and an exciting race.

The one thing this doesn't prevent is a team not running because they don't think they will lose anything, despite the disincentives in place. This is the frustrating position I am in with my other favourite team, AF Corse. It is in Portugul for the Le Mans Series race but due to some terrible luck involving a lorry accident, a broken tail-lift and an hastily-completed new car presenting problems, is apparently comtemplating a deliberate non-finish for its hitherto most competitive and popular car (the #51 driven by Giancarlo Fisichella and Gianmaria Bruni). It's already team champion, with the #51's drivers also confirmed as individual champions, so they not particularly worried about points. The car is in one piece and is very fast when it works, but could break at any moment and the staff all need to be in America as soon as possible because Petit Le Mans, part of an Intercontinental Le Mans Championship that the team hasn't fully secured yet, is next week and everyone on the the team needs to be there for early scrutineering. I can see the logic but am still upset with the idea a team might forefeit a race where it has somehow managed to qualify 2nd. Much as the people watching the logical withdrawal of the Force Indias from Q3 were upset about them "forfeiting" the last bit of qualifying when they were good enough to at least set representative times. 

Intellectually logical, emotionally tough to accept...

I've had a bit of a creative dry spell recently. That changed this evening when I saw WTF1's entry about the Formula 1 Wikipedia game. This is a game where you have to try to get from a random Wikipedia page to the "Formula 1" page in 6 clicks or fewer using only links in the pages themselves. It's based upon the "six degrees of separation" concept and it helps if you can make broad associational links... ...while allowing for certain weaknesses in Wikipedia's articles.

Take my first successful attempt, for example. The "Random Article" button placed me at Omak Airport (an airport in Washington used in World War II). You might initially think such an article was about as helpful as Lake Tanganyika Stadium (where I started the previous - and first - time). However, the article mentions certain trivia about the airport, including the airstrip construction material... ...Asphalt.

Now asphalt is used in all sorts of roads. Sadly, there was no mention of motor racing of any kind in Wikipedia's asphalt article despite 85% of the USA's asphalt being used in road construction. That said, in 1835 - the early days of European asphalt usage - the largest project involving the new material had 24,000 square yards of ground was covered for easy access around the... ...Place de la Concorde.

When I saw that I thought, "Wow! This will be easy - the FIA lives at the Place de la Concorde and the FIA article surely mentions Formula 1 among its activities!" Not so fast! Pretty much every other significant feature of the Place de la Concorde is mentioned (it features, among other things, 8 statues representing major French cities, the French National Assembly and the American embassy), but no mention of the FIA offices that are also there. Oh well, at least France does have a long and storied history in Formula 1...

which isn't mentioned in the France article. There is a lengthy sports section which describes a great variety of sporting activities in France. There's even a motor racing bit. Which talks about the 24 Hours of Le Mans.

The article on the 24 Hours of Le Mans is lengthy. It turns out that in that length, there's a part about Peugeot introducing KERS for the 2009 event which mentions its similarity to the Formula 1 version, but I missed it because I thought I'd seen the perfect link in the "Purpose" section. The first line read, "At a time when Grand Prix racing was the dominant form of motorsport throughout Europe"

I thought "2 clicks and home in the 6 required!" and for once I was right. Grands Prix were the original form of motor racing and many of the series that followed adopted the terminology for their individual events. Formula 1 is the most famous of these. In the article, it mentions that motor racing was started in France, but France's accomplishments with regards to sports are so extensive that this didn't even warrant a mention in the France entry.

Some of my Wikipedia wanderings were a bit shorter. One of them started me at Way Out West (jazz group), which includes West African drums, a dan tranh (a Vietnamese zither) and dan bau (a Vietnamese one-stringed sound box). It has performed in several notable Canadian festivals but is based in the suburbs of Melbourne, Australia.

Melbourne is the second-biggest city in Australia, originally founded by settlers from Van Diemen's Land. Whether this has any non-coincidental connection to the Van Diemen single-seater car manufacturer is unknown. What is known is that it hosts the Australian Grand Prix (Formula One). So that particular wiki walk was completed in a mere two clicks. Maybe Way Out West should be invited to the 2012 F1 Rocks, seeing as the next F1 Rocks concert has such noted non-rock musicians as David Guetta, Taio Cruz and the Sugababes...

Amusingly, the next and final F1 Wikipedia attempt I did started in a motor sport article: the 2009 Formula Lista Junior season. It is a Formula BMW series running from April to September that started in 2000 and is still happening. Most of the drivers and all but one of the teams are Swiss, but the law in Switzerland means they cannot race in their home country. Instead, they race in France (including two visits to Dijon), Germany and Italy, benefiting from a rule allowing national-level racers from anywhere in the EU or a limited number of other countries reciprocal access to appropriate series in any country involved in that agreement.

That said, the 2009 title was not won by a Swiss driver, but an Italian one - Kevin Giovesi. He won 5 races out of the 12 and scored nearly 50% more points than the second-placed Sven Ackermann (who was the first in a cluster of six Swiss drivers). Some progression is clearly possible because even fifth-placed Sandro Zeller competed in three different F3 championships during 2010. Kevin Giovesi went into Italian F3 but came only 15th while Sven appears to have fallen off the radar completely.

Returning to the wiki walk, the final round happened at Monza.  Needless to say, the Monza article casually mentions the fact that it hosts Formula 1 once... ...or twice... ...or 27 times (admittedly including reference lists). So that wiki walk got me to the destination in 2 clicks, but in a very interesting way for a motor sports fan. It's always nice to discover a previously-unknown racing series :)