Date: 29 April 2009

Warning! Long entry alert!

This time last year, I wrote about Renault's long-term driver strategy. It seems not a lot has changed since then. This is unfortunate, because it means that Renault still doesn't have a particularly good car (though it wasn't too bad at the end of last year), Alonso's still not getting the results he wants (though he won twice during the last phase of 2008) and Piquet Jr still hasn't surmounted the F1 learning curve.

In other words, it now has a confirmed driver problem in addition to the car problem it had when I started doing this series of entries in 2007. Piquet Jr poses a driver problem because he is too slow and Alonso poses one because he is too fast.

The first problem is the more pressing; word has it that Renault's board is fed up of Piquet Jr being slow and crash-prone (a three-nosecone strategy in China would have been forgiveable had decent performances elsewhere been provided, but with the possible exception of Bahrain, none have been forthcoming in 2009). Action may be underway; if the rumours are correct, Monaco would see a new face in the No. 8 Renault.

Alonso is a growing problem because he wants a championship-challenging car to match his championship-challenging talent. He's been at Renault for over a year and no such car appears forthcoming. They were caught on the hop on the subject of double diffusers - hardly unique, but then Flavio, the true lynchpin of the team, spent so long bemoaning the legitimate interpretation of the "diffuser three" that one wonders whether he had any faith in his own department's ability to fashion a good diffuser of its own. Precedent suggests he should; on items as diverse as traction control in 2001 and seamless shift gearboxes in 2007, the Renault department has been late to the party, but with a near-perfect interpretation of the concept. There is no reason to believe that double diffusers will be any different.

This development strategy should ensure that Renault returns to the top at some point. The question is whether Alonso will have the patience to be there when it happens. The persistent rumours that he will go to Ferrari remain, though after the troubles he had at McLaren, Fernando might be wary of a repeat. Then there's the small matter of Renault having two more points and considerably more reliability than Ferrari to consider.

Still, there's one more thing that could cause Alonso to move. The board's rumoured impatience with Piquet Jr could point to a need for results. This is understandable in the current climate, but if the board's schedule no longer matches the team management schedule, it may be possible that Renault leaves Renault. Should this happen, the team will have serious problems. Even the rumbles of doubt might make Alonso look at his options carefully - he's left Renault on the grounds of long-term instability before and he could do it again.

In that case, Flavio definitely needs one new face and possibly two. If Romain Grosjean's manager has had the intelligence to make him the reserve driver in contract as well as in effect, then he will have the rest of the season to prove he's better than Piquet Jr. If he has more talent than connections, then I can see that happening. The trouble is that I know little about him and junior records don't always indicate F1 success reliably. Sebastien Buemi has a much, much worse record in junior series than Sebastién Bourdais, but even the biggest Bourdais fan would not suggest that Bourdais was steamrollering his rookie team-mate in the way that their respective CVs suggested would happen.

Possible Alonso replacements are at once plentiful and non-existent. They're plentiful because Alonso is not going to walk mid-season whatever happens. This means that Renault can bring someone in during what is likely to be a transfer season of high movement. It's not even clear who will be available, except that Jenson Button cannot be selected due to his three-year contract with Brawn. Perhaps Flavio's frustration with the situation was what prompted him to compare Jenson with a milepost. All I can say is that Flavio's mileposts would be so fast that you'd hardly ever see any...

Somehow, I don't feel particularly worried about Renault's ability to get a good No. 1 driver, if only because at Renault's core is a group of engineers that really know their stuff. When people like Pat Symonds are on the team, it is certain to get through any track-related challenge in a reasonably useful state.

The "non-existent" element of replacements for Alonso comes from Flavio's perception of Fernando as Renault's talisman. Last time Fernando left, Flavio opened negotiations for him to return before the 2007 season even began, despite not being consulted over the original move. That's how much Fernando means to Flavio. Since it is Flavio who has the power at Renault, any driver in an Alonso-free situation will have to deal with the unseen, intangible presence of Fernando on top of whatever challenges 2010 presents Renault. As such, I can see whoever is picked to replace Fernando failing purely because the perceived No. 1 driver will be elsewhere. The best a replacement could hope to be, whatever their talent, is a No. 2. Poor Romain would probably end up as a No. 3 in this case.

If Alonso stays, then Grosjean will simply need to be better than Piquet Jr. If he's so much better as to threaten Fernando, then a swift transfer to Red Bull (swapping with the Flavio-managed Webber, perhaps?) would solve the problem in the short term - or if the situation is stable enough, a sale to whichever team looks most pleasing to Romain would be even better.

Renault's current driver line-up looks destined to fail. Getting a better driver strategy is largely dependent on Renault's management having the courage to back their F1 team even through a recession.